Purchase stocks before June 4, advises Amit Shah; what stock market experts suggest

Union Home Minister Amit Shah told a media outlet on Monday not to link the recent stock market moves to the general elections of 2024. He encouraged stock investors to "buy before June 4," the date of the Lok Sabha election results, anticipating a subsequent surge in the domestic stock market."I can't anticipate stock market moves. However, the market often experiences a surge when a solid government is constituted at the center. I see $400-plus seat wins for BJP, a stable Modi government coming, and thus market rising," Shah told NDTV.His remarks were made on a day when the stock market benchmark Nifty was down for the sixth straight session and the fourth phase of the ongoing elections was in progress. The market's current state of uncertainty regarding the poll's outcome did not seem to phase Shah.Nomura India predicted a BJP victory and continued policy after the general elections in 2024 based on recent polls. Nomura envisions a persistent emphasis on infrastructure spending and a manufacturing drive in addition to budgetary consolidation as part of the reform program for the ensuing five years."The government might concentrate on the more divisive political reforms pertaining to the forces of production—land, labor, and capital—as well as judicial reforms and streamlining the administration of direct and indirect taxes, such as incorporating alcohol, gas, and electricity under the GST. The administration is also anticipated to concentrate more on facilitating foreign investment and establishing the framework for industries of the next generation," the statement stated.MUFG Bank, however, pointed out that although it appeared to be a "done deal," with most political analysts and pollsters predicting that the incumbent BJP government would likely win handily, lower voter turnout in the first three phases of the election has raised perceived uncertainty about the result, even though the consensus is still firmly in favor of the incumbent's return.

As long as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) retains a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha (more than 272 seats), we believe that markets will eventually see the results of the Indian general elections favorably. If the BJP loses a few seats but keeps its majority, there might be some little knee-jerk weakness in INR FX and risk assets, the report stated.According to MUFG Bank, in such a situation there will still be policy continuity in important sectors like infrastructure, investment attractiveness, fiscal consolidation, and inflation management, so this weakness should eventually rebound. "Conversely, a greater seat share win by the BJP compared with 2019 (>303 seats) would increase the ability to pass more contentious structural reforms in land, labour and the agriculture sector, and will be perceived much more positively by markets, with INR FX and risk assets likely rallying in the aftermath," it stated. All eyes would be on the July Budget, according to Mirae Asset, if the BJP wins power, to see if any changes are made to the MSP policy, direct or indirect taxation, or MGNREGA payments. Long-term, the emphasis wouldPhillipCapital stated this week that if the much-publicized 400-plus target is met by the BJP-led NDA, it anticipates a robust rise. "We would view a lower 300–330 seat NDA as a buying opportunity if it causes a knee-jerk reaction in the market, or a decline. We would maintain a careful eye on the election's outcome and stock market conditions in the event that voter turnout continues to deteriorate in the upcoming rounds of the election, the domestic brokerage stated in its note.