Budget 2024-25: Govt may increase capex to propel economic growth

With private investment still muted, the government is likely to maintain its momentum on increasing capital expenditure, especially for the infrastructure sector in the upcoming Budget to propel economic growth.Post Covid-19, the Budget has been laying special emphasis on capex. It has kick-started a dormant cycle for the economy. As a result India has witnessed over 7 per cent growth in the last three years, the highest among the large economies of the world. During the current financial year, the government has made a record high provision of Rs 10 lakh crore towards capex. During 2020-21, the government earmarked Rs 4.39 lakh crore which increased by 35 per cent to Rs 5.54 lakh crore in the subsequent year.Another 35 per cent hike in capex was done in 2022-23 to Rs 7.5 lakh crore which subsequently reached a high of Rs 10 lakh crore, an increase of 37.4 per cent.In the upcoming Budget too, the government is expected to earmark a large amount towards capex as such investment has a multiplier effect on the economy and it also crowds in private investment."We estimate Government of India to budget for a capex of Rs 10.2 lakh crore in FY25, implying a relatively sedate YoY expansion of about 10 per cent, compared to over 20 per cent expansion seen in each of post-COVID years. The slowdown in capex growth is likely to have some bearing on economic activity and GDP growth," Icra said in its pre-Budget expectations.  The capex rose by 31 per cent to Rs 5.9 lakh crore in April-November of the current fiscal (58.5 per cent of FY2024 BE) from Rs 4.5 lakh in April-November FY23 (60.7 per cent of FY23 Prov).While the growth remained high, capital spending contracted in October 2023 (-14.9 per cent; first instance of contraction since April 2023) and then rose by a marginal 1.6 per cent in November 2023. Moreover, it has averaged at Rs 73,210 crore/month, 12.2 per cent lower than the required monthly average of Rs 83,400 crore to meet the budgeted target of Rs 10 lakh crore.India is a hugely infra deficit country and heavy lifting in this regard is being done by the government which crowds in private investment. With the growth in the economy, there has been a pick-up in private investment in recent times in some of the sectors like steel, cement and petroleum sector.According to Emkay Global Financial Services head research Seshadri Sen, capex by the government would continue and it will happen at a faster pace.The capex would help unlock the virtuous cycle. Investment leading to productivity growth, job creation, demand and exports feed into each other and enable animal spirits in the economy to thrive.  

Sensex, Nifty tick higher after a 3-day drop; IRFC, Network 18 jump up to 5%

The 30-share BSE Sensex surged 635 points or 0.89 per cent to trade at 71,822, while the NSE Nifty was up 169 points or 0.79 per cent to trade at 21,631. Indian equity benchmarks were up in Friday's early trade following a three-day losing streak, led by gains across all sectors. The 30-share BSE Sensex surged 635 points or 0.89 per cent to trade at 71,822, while the NSE Nifty was up 169 points or 0.79 per cent to trade at 21,631. Broader markets (mid- and small-cap shares) were positive as Nifty Midcap 100 rose 0.83 per cent and small-cap gained 0.95 per cent. On the global front, Asian markets opened higher, tracking an overnight rise in Wall Street equities.Back home, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold Rs 9,901.56 crore worth of shares on a net basis during the previous session, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought Rs 5,977.12 crore worth of shares, exchange data showed.   All the 15 sector gauges -- compiled by the NSE -- were trading in the green. Sub-indexes Nifty Financial Services and Nifty IT were outperforming the NSE platform by rising as much as 1.01 per cent and 1.22 per cent, respectively.On the stock-specific front, Tech Mahindra was the top gainer in the Nifty pack as the stock soared 2.74 per cent to trade at Rs 1,392.3. Wipro, Coal India, HCL Tech and TCS rose up to 1.92 per cent. In contrast, IndusInd Bank was the top loser on Nifty50.   The overall market breadth was strong as 2,411 shares were advancing while 400 were declining on BSE.On the 30-share BSE index, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Infosys, TCS, Axis Bank, ITC, L&T, Airtel and Titan were among the top gainers.Also, BSE 500 stocks such as IRFC, Network18, Home First Finance, IndiaMART, Poonawalla Fincorp, HUDCO and ITI moved up to 5.33 per cent higher. On the other hand, Shoppers Stop, Metro Brands, Dixon Technologies, Polycab India, ZEE, Cholamandalam Finance and Alembic Pharma slipped up to 3.78 per cent.    

Paytm Credit Card on UPI enables effortless daily transactions like payments on grocery stores, chai shops

With just a smartphone, users can easily make UPI payments via credit cards on the Paytm app, powered by Paytm Payments Bank. The convenience of digital transactions have become a fundamental aspect of our daily lives in today’s fast paced world. One such transformative force in the digital payment landscape is the integration of UPI payments through credit cards on the Paytm app. Making small payments of ₹10 to ₹100 bucks through credit at your nearby Kirana stores or a local chai shop or even a chat shop has evolved into the ultimate and convenient payment method for users. This groundbreaking feature offers users the convenience of utilizing credit for routine payments, eliminating the need to rely solely on savings accounts and carrying the card everywhere. With just a smartphone, users can easily make UPI payments via credit cards on the Paytm app, powered by Paytm Payments Bank.   Users simply need to link their Rupay Credit Card to UPI through a straightforward process with quick and easy steps. The Credit Card on UPI feature allows users to scan merchant QR codes, allowing them to earn reward points with every transaction.With millions of merchants now accepting payments via credit cards on UPI, this can have a significant impact on the payment landscape.   This integration of RuPay Credit Cards on UPI not only expands credit card usage for customers but also supports merchants in the credit ecosystem through assets like QR codes. The increasing acceptance of RuPay credit cards on UPI contributes to financial inclusion, benefiting merchants and businesses across India.  Paytm Payments Bank remains at the forefront of innovation, driving the adoption of UPI payments with credit cards, and envisions a future where this technology reshapes the dynamics of the payment ecosystem in India.  

Delhi-NCR stays in fog grip: Many trains, flights delayed, no respite till Jan 21

Dense to very dense fog and cold day to severe cold day conditions are likely to continue to prevail over North for the next 2 days (Jan 21) and then decrease in intensity.Fog update: Respite will have to wait for several parts of North India reeling under chilling cold wave conditions along with dense fog that has disrupted rail and air traffic for the past few weeks. Maximum temperatures have dropped below normal by 5-8 degrees Celsius since December. There was a brief respite on January 7 and 8, owing to a passing western disturbance but cold conditions returned from January 9.  Dense to very dense fog and cold day to severe cold day conditions are likely to continue to prevail over North for the next 2 days (Jan 21) and then decrease in intensity. Cold wave and dense fog conditions are likely to prevail over Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan and at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, according to the forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD)."Dense to very dense fog at a few places in Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan and at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand," the weather department said."Cold day to severe cold day conditions at a few places in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan and at isolated places in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Haryana.   Cold wave to severe cold wave conditions at a few places in Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and at isolated places in Himanchal Pradesh. Ground frost at isolated places in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand," it added. The early-morning foggy weather in Delhi and adjoining areas has significantly impacted road, rail, and air traffic over the past several days. On Friday, at least 22 trains from various parts of the country were running late, and several flight operations were delayed at Delhi's Indira Gandhi International (IGI) airport due to low visibility amid the fog.According to the weather department, minimum temperatures are in the range of 3-6 degrees Celsius over many parts of Punjab and some parts of Haryana-Chandigarh; in the range of 7-10 degrees Celsius over most parts of Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, north Madhya Pradesh and Bihar.These are below normal by 1 degree to 3 degrees Celsius over many parts of Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh and in isolated pockets of Rajasthan.  

Removing layers: Sundar Pichai hints at more layoffs at Google in 2024

A day after laying off around 1,000 employees, Google chief executive officer (CEO) Sundar Pichai, on Wednesday, hinted towards more job cuts in the year ahead, The Verge reported. Terming it as part of a larger restructuring plan, Pichai, in an internal memo to Google employees, said, "We have ambitious goals and will be investing in our big priorities this year…the reality is that to create the capacity for this investment, we have to make tough choices."Referring to the "tough decisions", Pichai further said in the memo, "These role eliminations are not at the scale of last year's reductions and will not touch every team. His remark referenced Google's 2023 layoffs when the tech giant fired about 12,000 employees, the biggest layoff in the company's history in a single year.According to the report, Pichai said the layoffs this year were about "removing layers to simplify execution and drive velocity in some areas."Pichai's communication followed a day after Google handed pink slips to around 1,000 employees in the advertising sales team in the first layoff wave of 2024. The company said the eligible employees would receive severance pay. It also offered that the impacted employees may re-apply for open positions in other departments. However, it clarified that those unable to secure a position at the company would be required to exit by April. The developments followed about a week after Google had announced that it would lay off hundreds of people working on its voice-activated Google Assistant software and the company's Devices and Services team.Apart from Google, Jeff Bezos' Amazon also announced last week that it would fire several hundred employees in its streaming and studio operations.Neither company has specified the exact number of job role cuts they are planning in 2024.  

HDFC seeks Singapore bank licence to open its 1st branch in the country

HDFC Bank Ltd, India’s biggest private sector lender, is seeking to open its first branch in Singapore, signaling its overseas ambitions after sewing up a landmark merger with mortgage financier Housing Development Finance Corp. last year.  The bank has applied to the Monetary Authority of Singapore for a banking licence and is awaiting approval, according to sources familiar with the matter. It is not clear what kind of banking licence HDFC Bank is seeking in Singapore, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information is confidential.The banking giant is seeking a bigger presence abroad to tap the Indian diaspora for savings and term deposits, as well as to cross-sell more products, including mortgages, the people said. At home, HDFC has been focusing on deepening its reach in the world’s most populous country through loans to retail customers. HDFC Bank did not respond to an email seeking comment. “As a matter of policy, MAS does not comment on our dealings with financial institutions,” according to a spokesperson from the Singapore regulator.Singapore, with a population of almost 6 million people, houses a large India diaspora. About 650,000 non-resident and persons of Indian origin live in the city-state, according to Indian government data.HDFC Bank is currently not licenced or regulated by the MAS, according to its website. It only provides home loans-related advisory services for the purchase of properties in India, the website states.  The categories of banking licences in Singapore encompass full banks, qualifying full banks and wholesale banks, which impose varying levels of restrictions on the lenders’ activities. State Bank of India and ICICI Bank Ltd. hold qualifying full banking licences, alongside eight other banks like Bank of China Ltd. and BNP Paribas SA. Such licences are open only to foreign banks and allow them to have additional branches and/or off-premise ATMs as well as to share ATMs among themselves, according to the Association of Banks in Singapore’s website.The MAS regulates and supervises more than 150 deposit-taking institutions in Singapore, ranging from full banks to finance companies, according to its website. Besides Singapore, HDFC Bank also has presence in markets like London, Hong Kong and Bahrain. The India bank has a total customer base of 93 million at the end of the December quarter compared with 91 million in the preceding three-month period, according to an investor presentation.   

Sensex slips for 3rd day, dips 314 pts; OFSS up 27%, LTIMindtree tanks 11%

Intraday, the Nifty witnessed a pullback from the support zone of 21,820 – 21,300, which is likely to continue over the next few trading sessions. On the upside, the counter-trend pullback can extend till 21,600 – 21,650 where resistance in the form of the 20-day moving average is placed.In terms of levels, 21,550 – 21,570 is the immediate hurdle zone while 21,350 – 21,300 is the crucial support zone. Bank Nifty has reached the 161.82% Fibonacci extension level 45,768, which also coincides with the 20-week moving average making the zone of 45,800 – 45,600 a crucial support zone.Until this is not breached on the downside, we can expect the recovery to continue. On the upside, the pullback can come till 46,400 – 46,600.Views by: Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas. The benchmark indices exhibited recovery from the day’s low and ended in red amid weak global cues, as investors are trimming bets on rapid FED cuts due to strong US retail sales and the resulting rise in global bond yields.Furthermore, oil price advances and rate escalation risks have led to disruptions in global shipping and crude production.The broader market continued its selling pressure given the elevated valuation and profit booking with an aim for sector rotation.Indian snacks maker Haldiram's is in talks to acquire a majority stake in Prataap Snacks, which is valued at $350 million, to expand its presence in the potato chip market, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.The talks are at an early stage and a valuation has not been discussed, though it could be at a premium to Prataap's stock price.Haldiram's is eyeing a majority stake of at least 51%, but a final number has not been decided, said the sources.  

Adani stocks found buyers in Indias retail investors during Hindenburg row

India’s retail investors piled into Adani Group companies as their shares cratered in the wake of the Hindenburg Research’s scathing report last January. A year later, they’re still keeping the faith.  Individual holdings in nine of the group’s 10 stocks at the end of December are higher than they were before the short-seller’s attack on the conglomerate, exchange data compiled by Bloomberg show.  The group’s market value has increased by more than $60 billion since late November, and is just $50 billion away from erasing the losses spurred by Hindenburg’s report. The recovery likely rewarded retail investors who used the selloff as a buying opportunity. “Many of the retail investors came in after the crash,” said Chakri Lokapriya, managing director at Mumbai-based asset manager RedStrawBerry LLP and former fund manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “They have exhibited a sense of maturity to hold on given that infrastructure companies take longer to realize their earnings potential.” While foreign investors, insurance companies and high-networth individuals pared their holdings in various group entities in 2023, the number of retail investors — those with at least Rs 2,00,000 ($2,411) to invest — jumped 42 per cent to 6.7 million in Adani companies, data compiled by Bloomberg show.   Hindenburg’s allegations of stock manipulation and fraud, repeatedly denied by the group, had wiped off more than $150 billion from its market value at one point. Billions of dollars in investments from marquee funds including GQG Partners LLC, and more recently, an observation from India’s top court that it won’t take media reports on Adani as the “gospel truth,” has renewed investor confidence in the group stocks. To be sure, retail shareholding in the flagship Adani Enterprises Ltd. and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd. fell from the levels reached at the end of March 2023, as the rally likely prompted some investors to book gains. “Retail investors who bought into these stocks definitely made money,” said Ambareesh Baliga, an independent market expert. “But when you are buying momentum stocks, you should book profits from time to time.”  

Apple expands India presence, opens office covering 15 floors in Bengaluru

US-based technology giant Apple expands its presence in India with a new office in Bengaluru, Karnataka. The new Apple office is located at Minsk Square in the center of the city. In its proximity, there are landmarks buildings and spots such as parliament, high court, central library, Chinnaswamy cricket stadium, and one of the largest green parks within Bengaluru. Covering 15 floors, the new Apple office will house up to 1,200 employees and features a dedicated lab space, areas for collaboration and wellness, and Caffe Macs. Its proximity to Cubbon Park metro station means public transit is easily accessible for employees. "Apple is thrilled to expand in India with our new office in the heart of Bengaluru. This dynamic city is already home to so many of our talented teams, including software engineering and hardware technologies, operations, customer support, and more. Like everything we do at Apple, this workspace is created to foster innovation, creativity, and connection. It’s an amazing space for our teams to collaborate” said Apple.From its Bengaluru office, Apple’s teams will work across a wide range of Apple’s business — from software, hardware, services, IS&T, operations, customer support, and others. In line with Apple's global presence, the new Apple office in Bengaluru boasts an interior crafted from locally-sourced materials, including stone, wood, and fabric in the walls and flooring, and the office is filled with native plants.  The office is designed with sustainability at the core – will run on 100 per cent renewable energy. With it Apple aims to achieve a Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Platinum rating — the highest level of LEED certification. Apple has been carbon neutral for its corporate operations since 2020, and has run all Apple facilities using 100 per cent renewable energy since 2018. In India, the company has its corporate office footprint in Mumbai, Hyderabad, and Gurugram, and now in Bengaluru.  

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Adani Group set to start mapping famous Mumbai slums Dharavi in weeks

The conglomerate owned by tycoon Gautam Adani won a government contract to redevelop Dharavi in late 2022 and will begin surveying the roughly 600 acre densely packed neighborhood in March, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly. The Times of India reported Tuesday that the survey will kick off in two weeks. His bid to revamp Dharavi has received considerable attention thanks to the slum’s fame with tourists and backdrop to multiple films, including 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire. But Adani Group faces considerable political opposition and legal hurdles to completing the renovation, which has been sounded out with little progress for decades. Adani, one of India’s richest and most powerful businessmen who is seen to enjoy strong ties to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is expected to complete the estimated $3 billion project over the next seven years, the people said. Last year, the billionaire said he intends to turn Dharavi into a modern hub and support the small industries based there. His bid to revamp Dharavi has received considerable attention thanks to the slum’s fame with tourists and backdrop to multiple films, including 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire. But Adani Group faces considerable political opposition and legal hurdles to completing the renovation, which has been sounded out with little progress for decades. In a statement issued on Monday, Adani said that eligible residents will get a 350 square foot flat in the area once the project is completed, while ineligible residents will be rehoused in areas across the city.But with few other details about Adani’s plans for the slum yet to be made public, many of Dharavi’s estimated million residents believe Adani will gut their community, shunting them into poor quality apartments or rehouse them miles from Mumbai’s center.Adani is also locked in a legal battle in the Bombay High Court with a Dubai-based consortium of developers and investors called SecLink Technologies Corp., which won a 2018 bid to revamp Dharavi. That tender was later canned and reissued by the state government of Maharashtra, which counts Mumbai as its capital and holds a 20% stake in the Adani-controlled entity pursuing the project. Adani’s team are aware they will have to win trust of residents and may face violent protests while conducting the survey, which will determine who is eligible for new apartments and commercial spaces, the people said.They added that the survey will help build out Adani’s master plan for the slum, which is expected to be submitted to local authorities by March — a delay from an original December deadline, according to the original tender documents.While local firm Genesys International Ltd. will map the area, UK consultancy Buro Happold Ltd. will outline the physical infrastructure needs, while Boston-based Sasaki Associates Inc. will be in charge of the overall re-design, said one of the people.    

Bond market expects RBI to change policy stance in February review

Bond market participants are expecting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to change its stance in the February policy review to neutral from withdrawal of accommodation, citing the continuous variable rate repo (VRR) auctions. “RBI is trying to adjust liquidity and bring it close to neutral or zero. The way RBI spoke in the last policy, it doesn't look like it wants a hike anytime soon,” said Naveen Singh, vice-president of ICICI Securities primary dealership.“If they don't want to cut now, but they also don't want to hike, then what's the point of keeping withdrawal of accommodation stance? They can very well come to a neutral stance. And, a neutral stance doesn't stop RBI from hiking if it wants to. Consequently, the market has been strategically taking long positions in government bonds, said dealers. “A majority of the people, if not everyone, is taking long positions (buying) because the market is factoring in that the RBI would change its stance in February,” said a dealer at a state-owned bank.Consequently, the market has been strategically taking long positions in government bonds, said dealers. “A majority of the people, if not everyone, is taking long positions (buying) because the market is factoring in that the RBI would change its stance in February,” said a dealer at a state-owned bank.Yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond has fallen by 3 basis points (bps) in January so far. In December, the yield had fallen by 11 bps. “A minority section of the market thinks that a change in stance in February is possible. The general view is that April is when the change in stance happens,” said Vijay Sharma, senior executive vice-president at PNB Gilts.“Even after this Rs 1.75 trillion VRR, the liquidity is still in deficit mode. It is apparent that through the recent consecutive VRR auctions, RBI is ensuring that tightness in liquidity is not stretched. However, it is too early to say that RBI is taking an accommodative stance. So, it is still a wait-and-watch situation.” he added. The central bank has been conducting VRR auctions in order to infuse liquidity into the banking system. In the 13-day VRR auction conducted by the RBI on Friday, bids were received for Rs 3.92 trillion, against a notified amount of Rs 1.75 trillion.In the preceding VRR auctions, the central bank received a strong demand, with banks submitting bids ranging between 2.5 and 3.2 times of the bidding amounts. This is due to tight liquidity conditions in the system. Liquidity remained largely in deficit mode in the third quarter. The central bank had conducted a VRR auction after six months on December 15.Market participants observed that despite the higher-than-expected US consumer price index (CPI), the US Treasury yield softened. This reinforced the anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March.    

MC Exclusive | Capacity addition, lower AT&C losses top RK Singhs wishlist for Modi 3.0

With the general elections scheduled in April-May, Union Minister for Power and New and Renewable Energy RK Singh listed out his top priorities with the hope that the Narendra Modi government will return for the third consecutive term. "The top priority once the government led by Modi is back in power will be increasing our electricity generation capacity. The other priority will be to reduce the aggregate technical and commercial (AT&C) losses of distribution companies (discoms) to about 10 percent," Singh said during a fireside chat at Moneycontrol's Policy Next Summit in Delhi on January 18. "Rest, India is already a leader in energy transition, so I am not worried about the country's renewable energy targets. We will overachieve it anyway," he said. He said capacity addition is important to keep up with India's growing energy demand. “Since our country is going to continue growing at 7.5 percent or more for the next three decades, we will have to ensure enough electricity. In 2030, our peak demand is going to go up from 241 GW today to 366 GW. Our established capacity has to go up to 900 GW, from about 427 GW today," the power minister said. Giving an overview of the ongoing capacity additions in the power sector, the Union minister said the government is adding around 99,000 megawatt (MW) of renewable energy capacity, which is under construction. Another about 32,000 MW is under various bidding processes. Besides, the government has decided to bid 50,000 MW of renewable energy projects every year.On thermal capacity addition plan, Singh said the government will add 87,000 MW (87 GW) by 2030. "About 27,000 MW is under construction. In addition, we have bid out about 12,000 MW of thermal capacity. Another, 21,000 MW coal-fired capacity is under survey and investigation. Further, about 22,000 MW are under initial stages, where we have identified the land," he said. Singh said the government intends to increase India's hydropower capacity from the current 47,000 MW to about 90,000-100,000 MW. Talking about reduction of AT&C losses of discoms, the Union minister said he has set a fresh target of reducing it to 10-11 percent.AT&C losses are a combination of energy loss and commercial loss. While energy loss may comprise technical loss, theft, and inefficiency in billing, commercial loss constitutes default in payment and inefficiency in the collection. In 2021, the government had set the target to bring down AT&C losses to 12-15 percent by the financial year 2025. However, going by the latest provisional data, the government is likely to have achieved this target two years in advance.According to data from the power ministry, AT&C losses were as high as 25.5 percent in FY13. Till FY21, the AT&C losses stood at 22.3 percent. However, in FY22 it drastically declined to 16.4 percent. As per provisional data, in FY23, India's average AT&C losses have further come down to 13.5 percent.  

HNIs chase mid, small caps, IEX under bear attack, I-Pru Life tumbles, NHPC in focus

“Current earnings, future prospects, management, marketability are all factors more or less independent of assets which contribute their share to the intrinsic value.” - Benjamin Graham. Sentiment has turned cautious after three successive sessions of fall, but two days of gains could change that. In the past, mid and small caps would take a battering during market corrections and investors would flee to the safety of large caps. But now exactly the opposite is taking place — large caps are sliding harder than second-line stocks when the market falls.Whispers in market is that many of the mid and small cap companies say they have good earnings visibility for the next few quarters. And that is giving HNIs the comfort to hold on their positions in the stocks. The stock prices so far indicate that the market is willing to believe the earnings story. They would flag when there's still a couple of quarters of earnings growth left. Bull argument: Spot LNG prices have softened. Strong demand for LNG across sectors of late, and this trend is likely to strengthen going forward.Bear argument:  Competition is rising, also domestic gas production is increasing. The capex on its proposed petrochemicals foray could weigh on margins. Stock has fallen 16 percent in last couple of trading sessionsBear argument: Huge build up of speculative positions in F&O segment. Uncertainty over the market coupling policy for power exchanges an overhang on the stock.Bull argument: Stock has good support in the Rs 120-125 band. Also, concerns about the market coupling have already been priced in. Stock under pressure as government to sell 2.5 percent stakeBull argument: Seen benefitting from India’s commitment to net-zero as hydro power not polluting like thermal power.  Capacity expected to go up sharply in the coming years.Bear argument: Increase in floating stock could be an overhang in the short term. Right now, power is a fancied sector and there is unusually high demand for PSU stocks. This could change. Earnings could be volatile because of dependency on monsoon. GQG Partners upped its stake in ITC to 2.79 percent from 1.58 percent.Bull argument: A good defensive bet if the market continues to correct further. Cigarette volumes increased in Q2 and the trend is likely to sustain.Bear argument: Revenues from agri-business is under stress in FY24 due to a ban on the exports of wheat and rice. Re-rating story is largely over. Further gains will depend on ability to grow earnings.  

IndusInd Bank Q3 results impress analysts. Should you buy or sell?

IndusInd Bank impressed the street with a healthy set of number for the December quarter and analysts remain bullish on the counter, counting steady margins, improving retail deposit mix and strong loan growth as some of the key positives. In the past year, the stock has jumped more than 31 percent, outperforming Bank Nifty index which is up 8 percent. The stock hit a 52-week high of Rs 1,694 on January 15.The bank's net profit grew 17 percent on-year to Rs 2,301 crore, aided by healthy net interest income (NII) growth of 18 percent and lower provisions, the private lender said on January 18. At a time when banking sector is grappling with higher cost of funds, its net interest margin (NIM) saw a modest expansion of two basis points (bps) YoY to 4.29 percent in the December quarter.  Analysts at Jefferies shared a "buy" call for IndusInd, with a target price of Rs 2,070, saying the lender's NII growth was among the best across coverage.  "IndusInd's profit met estimates but they used Rs 200 crore of contingent buffers. We see 20 percent profit compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in FY24-26, with return of equity (RoE) of 16 percent in FY25," they wrote in their result review.  HSBC, too, shared a "buy" call, with a target price of Rs 2,040 apiece on the back of in-line Q3 operating performance, but remain wary of higher slippages. "We forecast CAGR of 23 percent for operating profit and 21 percent earnings per share (EPS) over FY24-26," they said. The rise in fresh slippages, or bad loans, however, remained a key concern during the quarter, analysts at Morgan Stanley said, trimming EPS by 0.5 percent for FY24 and a percent for FY25.  The brokerage firm, however, shared an "overweight" call with a target price of Rs 1,850 per share.  IndusInd Bank's fresh slippages rose 20.5 percent on a sequential basis to Rs 1,700 crore in the December quarter due to a elevated slippages in corporate and vehicle finance books. However, the management guided that they will normalise to Rs 1,200 crore going ahead.  Gross non-performing asset (GNPA) and net NPA ratios were stable at 1.9 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, due to asset reconstruction company (ARC) sale of Rs 3,100 crore. On the business front, analysts at Macquarie said 24 percent on-year growth in retail book was encouraging during the quarter.  "The retail book growth was driven by vehicle book growth. As per liquidity coverage ratio classification mix, retail deposit improved to 45 percent YoY," the brokerage firm said, sharing an "outperform call" with a target price of Rs 1,900 a share.  The lender's loan growth was up by 20 percent YoY, while deposits grew by 13 percent YoY. The management expects loan growth to be in the range of 18-23 percent, with the retail loan mix at 55-60 percent.  "We estimate 21 percent earnings CAGR over FY24-26, leading to RoE of 16.2 percent in FY25," analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said, reiterating a "buy" rating for IndusInd Bank with a target price of Rs 1,900.  Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.  

Interim Budget 2024 Expectations: Govt to target fiscal deficit at 5.3% of GDP for FY2025, says ICRA

ICRA expects the fiscal deficit target for FY2025 to be set at 5.3 per cent of GDP, midway through the expected print of 6.0 per cent for FY2024 and the medium-term target of sub-4.5 per cent by FY2026.With the the Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman all set to present the interim Budget for the fiscal year 2024-25 on February 1, 2024, an analysis by ICRA suggested that the government is likely to target fiscal deficit at 5.3 per cent of GDP for FY2025, entailing a reasonable degree of fiscal consolidation amid slower capex growth. The upcoming Budget will be an interim one and is said to have no major announcements as it is coinciding with the general elections year which is scheduled for this year. The full budget for the fiscal year 2024-25 will be presented after the formation of the new government following the general elections. The Budget is allotted for the upcoming fiscal year, which runs from 1st April to 31st March of the next year.However, the expansion in the Government of India’s (GoI’s) capex and the extent of fiscal consolidation would be scrutinised closely, given the implications for growth and G-sec yields, respectively. ICRA expects the fiscal deficit target for FY2025 to be set at 5.3 per cent of GDP, midway through the expected print of 6.0 per cent for FY2024 and the medium-term target of sub-4.5 per cent by FY2026. “This, along with our projection of an appreciable dip in the revenue deficit, would allow for a capex target of Rs 10.2 trillion for FY2025, 10 per cent higher than the expected level for FY2024 vis-à-vis the 20 per cent-plus YoY expansion seen during FY2021-FY2024. A higher capex target would impinge on the GoI’s ability to bridge half the required fiscal consolidation in FY2025, thereby making the task of reaching medium-term fiscal deficit target by FY2026 even more challenging,” ICRA said in a report. Given the favourable macroeconomic backdrop and expectations of the benign domestic environment sustaining in the next fiscal, per the analysis by ICRA, the GoI is expected to continue on the fiscal consolidation path in the Union Budget for FY2025. However, it added that this is likely to entail a slower expansion in capex vis-à-vis that seen in the post-Covid years, which could weigh on the growth in economic activity. Additionally, with the upcoming Budget set to be an interim one for the purpose of a vote-on-account, major policy changes and announcements are unlikely at this juncture, it said.“We expect the GoI’s gross tax revenues (GTR) to grow by a healthy 11 per cent in FY2025, led by direct taxes and GST collections, even as the growth in excise and customs duty collections is likely to be subdued,” it said. The disinvestment target is likely to be pegged at sub-Rs 500 billion for FY2025. Given the uncertainties involved in market transactions, it would be prudent to set a moderate target of sub-Rs 500 billion for FY2025, instead of a higher aim that may disrupt the budget math if there is a large shortfall in such receipts by the end of the fiscal, based on the past year trends. Furthermore, ICRA expects the revenue expenditure to increase by a modest ~4 per cent in FY2025, led by a moderate growth in interest payments amid a slight moderation in allocation for subsidies and a continued focus on curtailment of other expenses. It added, “We estimate the GoI to budget for a capex of Rs 10.2 trillion in FY2025, implying a relatively sedate YoY expansion of ~10 per cent, compared to over 20 per cent expansion seen in each of post-Covid years. The slowdown in capex growth is likely to have some bearing on economic activity and GDP growth.” As already mentioned above, ICRA expects the GoI to target a fiscal deficit of 5.3 per cent of GDP in FY2025, midway through the expected print of 6.0 per cent in FY2024 and the medium-term target of 4.5 per cent for FY2026.  

Dense fog impacts flight operations at Delhi airport

The IGI airport experienced dense fog with visibility ranging between 50 and 100 metres from 12.30 am to 6.30 am, which improved and currently the visibility is 300 metres at 8 am today. Several flights were delayed at Delhi International Airport due to dense fog and low visibility. A few flights were also cancelled due to severe fog conditions in several parts of the country, Flight Information Display Board (FIDB) at Indira Gandhi International (IGI) Airport showed.  The IGI airport experienced dense fog with visibility ranging between 50 and 100 metres from 12.30 am to 6.30 am, which improved and currently the visibility is 300 metres at 8 am today, India Meteorological Department (IMD) mentioned in a tweet while adding that Runway Visual Range (RVR) is between 600-1200 metres. According to the weather forecast agency, very dense fog is when visibility is between 0 and 50 metres, between 51 and 200 metres is dense, between 201 and 500 metres moderate, and between 501 and 1,000 metres shallow. Several flights were also delayed and a few were cancelled due to the prevailing fog. Arrived from Bahrain and my (connecting) flight is delayed by one hour,” a passenger at Delhi’s IGI airport said. People in Delhi woke up to a foggy Thursday morning with the minimum temperature settling at 6.6 degrees Celsius, one notch below the season’s average, the weather department said. The Financial Express logoThe Financial ExpressSign inInterim Budget 2024 Expectations: Govt to target fiscal deficit at 5.3% of GDP for FY2025, says ICRARam Mandir inauguration date draws closer: Find out the top stocks with Ayodhya connection to bet onThe regional Lala Land! From cinemas to TV, OTT, regional content catches the imagination of viewersWhere to invest for your child’s higher educationBusiness NewsBusinessAirlines AviationFlight Operations Hit! Dense Fog Delays Several Flights At Delhi Airport – Details InsideFlight operations hit! Dense fog delays several flights at Delhi Airport – Details insideThe IGI airport experienced dense fog with visibility ranging between 50 and 100 metres from 12.30 am to 6.30 am, which improved and currently the visibility is 300 metres at 8 am today. The IGI airport experienced dense fog with visibility ranging between 50 and 100 metres from 12.30 am to 6.30 am, which improved and currently the visibility is 300 metres at 8 am today, India Meteorological Department (IMD) mentioned in a tweet while adding that Runway Visual Range (RVR) is between 600-1200 metres.Planned model of Rajmata Vijayaraje Scindia Airport in Gwalior (Image/@MoCA_GoI)Gwalior soars higher! Jyotiraditya Scindia boosts regional connectivity with new flights to 3 cities including Ayodhyapenalties for IndiGo and MIAL; Air India, SpiceJet finedMumbai Airport tarmac incident leads to rare high penalties for IndiGo and MIAL; Air India, SpiceJet fined Rs 30 lakh each – Here’s what happenedHindustan 228 aircraft HALHAL to unveil Hindustan-228 aircraft, upgraded Dhruv helicopter at Wings India 2024Air India Express Gwalior to Bengaluru direct flightAir India Express expands footprint: Daily direct flight from Gwalior to Bengaluru takes offAccording to the weather forecast agency, very dense fog is when visibility is between 0 and 50 metres, between 51 and 200 metres is dense, between 201 and 500 metres moderate, and between 501 and 1,000 metres shallow. Several flights were also delayed and a few were cancelled due to the prevailing fog.“I arrived from Bahrain and my (connecting) flight is delayed by one hour,” a passenger at Delhi’s IGI airport said.Dense fog prevails in parts of the country People in Delhi woke up to a foggy Thursday morning with the minimum temperature settling at 6.6 degrees Celsius, one notch below the season’s average, the weather department said.The Indian Meteorological Department has issued a yellow alert for moderate to dense fog at isolated places in the city for the next two days.According to an official release by the IMD, ‘very dense fog’ was observed in isolated parts of Punjab, Haryana, West Rajasthan and Bihar at 5.30 am on Thursday.Similar heavy fog was also reported in isolated parts of Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha and Assam while moderate fog was observed in isolated parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, as per IMD.  

Budget 2024: A pressing issue that may not wait till full budget

The fiscal deficit target of 5.3% will be set by the government in FY25, keeping in view the fiscal consolidation path till FY26, as it normalises capital spending and refrains from any major announcements in the interim budget before the general elections, Icra and Barclays economists have said. ICRA expects the fiscal deficit target for FY25 to be set at 5.3% of GDP, midway through the expected print of 6.0% for FY2024 and the medium-term target of sub-4.5% by FY26. India's Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector, which has 34% of its market in rural areas, is a good indicator of rural economic health. It is facing challenges in rural areas due to sluggish demand. The deficiency in rainfall in key agricultural states has disrupted the revival of rural demand seen in the first two quarters of the financial year. President of All India Consumer Products Distributors Federation, Dhairyashil Patil, has told TOI that FMCG sales in rural areas are 20-30% lower than usual. Demand for daily household products and groceries continued to be challenging in villages during October-December quarter, potentially hurting volume growth of the overall consumer goods sector. Godrej Consumer Products said demand trends in the fast-moving consumer sector during the third quarter were like the earlier quarter, while Marico said urban markets stayed steady but rural markets offered little cheer."High rural unemployment, along with demand for NREGS, reflects rural stress. El Nino derailed the initial green shoots seen at the start of FY24. Increased aggression of smaller players and alternative avenues of spending such as higher spends on education, medical, telecom charges, are leading to softer growth in the FMCG sector," Abneesh Roy, executive director at Nuvama Institutional Equities, has said. Consumer goods companies and analysts say demand for daily groceries and personal and home products in villages continued to trail urban growth in the December quarter but expect a steady recovery across markets on improving macro indicators, positive consumer sentiment and, importantly, increase in government spending in the election year.Another marker of rural distress is stiff demand for work under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. The budgetary outlay of Rs 60,000 crore for the shceme for fiscal 2024 was exhausted by November itself. The government subsequently provided Rs 10,000 crore in urgent assistance to meet demand.The FMCG companies have high hopes from election-year spending that will spur rural consumption. "During an election year, governments often extends benefits which are provided as part of various schemes, offer sops, helping rural households," said Akshay D'souza, chief of growth and insights at retail intelligence platform Bizom.    

What is the meaning of happy customers?

The ICC Cricket World Cup helped India's economy by increasing consumer spending across a number of businesses, with hotels, restaurants, and sports goods retailers benefiting most. Local cafes, fine-dining establishments, and small enterprises also saw growth. Retailers might expand business hours, hold freebies and contests, use social media platforms for engagement, start advertising campaigns, and push specials in order to take advantage of the increase in spending. A comfort.People had plenty to celebrate in 2023, from large-scale athletic events to significant concert tours. During the ICC Cricket World Cup, India hosted a multi-week athletic spectacular that was loved by legions of spectators. Companies planned trips, friends and family got together to support their teams, and fervent supporters traveled to destinations like Chennai and Delhi, just two of the several host towns that were humming with enthusiasm. There were numerous knock-on repercussions on the Indian economy. Consumer spending increased in all sectors of the economy, although it benefited hotels, restaurants, and sports memorabilia stores the most. Small companies, neighborhood eateries, mom-and-pop shops, and upscale eating establishments all experienced growth. With the World Cup, India's economy gained ground.Here are some strategies used by brands to capitalize on significant events: Increase business hours to satisfy those who wish to purchase before or after the event Organize competitions and giveaways, like trivia games, where victors can get gifts, deals, or complimentary merchandise. Use social media to promote user-generated content, engage customers with contests and real-time updates, and launch advertising campaigns that capitalize on the event's popularity. Encourage offers,... Visit this link for additional information: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/services/advertising/unravel-the-impact-of-major-events-on-consumer-spending/score-big-with-consumers/articleshow/106883402.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppstUsing a new digital food offer that offered a discount for buying large meal bundles during the event, a convenience store in the market sought to increase food sales over a significant weekend of broadcast sports events. Following the campaign's end, the shop sought to determine its effectiveness and which customers benefited the most from it.Introducing Mastercard Test & Learn®, a cloud-based tool that assists businesses in designing and analyzing market trends to identify the incremental impact of their initiatives and decide how best to target and customize their rollout in order to optimize return on investment.