Bond market expects RBI to change policy stance in February review

Bond market participants are expecting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to change its stance in the February policy review to neutral from withdrawal of accommodation, citing the continuous variable rate repo (VRR) auctions. “RBI is trying to adjust liquidity and bring it close to neutral or zero. The way RBI spoke in the last policy, it doesn't look like it wants a hike anytime soon,” said Naveen Singh, vice-president of ICICI Securities primary dealership.“If they don't want to cut now, but they also don't want to hike, then what's the point of keeping withdrawal of accommodation stance? They can very well come to a neutral stance. And, a neutral stance doesn't stop RBI from hiking if it wants to. Consequently, the market has been strategically taking long positions in government bonds, said dealers. “A majority of the people, if not everyone, is taking long positions (buying) because the market is factoring in that the RBI would change its stance in February,” said a dealer at a state-owned bank.Consequently, the market has been strategically taking long positions in government bonds, said dealers. “A majority of the people, if not everyone, is taking long positions (buying) because the market is factoring in that the RBI would change its stance in February,” said a dealer at a state-owned bank.Yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond has fallen by 3 basis points (bps) in January so far. In December, the yield had fallen by 11 bps. “A minority section of the market thinks that a change in stance in February is possible. The general view is that April is when the change in stance happens,” said Vijay Sharma, senior executive vice-president at PNB Gilts.“Even after this Rs 1.75 trillion VRR, the liquidity is still in deficit mode. It is apparent that through the recent consecutive VRR auctions, RBI is ensuring that tightness in liquidity is not stretched. However, it is too early to say that RBI is taking an accommodative stance. So, it is still a wait-and-watch situation.” he added. The central bank has been conducting VRR auctions in order to infuse liquidity into the banking system. In the 13-day VRR auction conducted by the RBI on Friday, bids were received for Rs 3.92 trillion, against a notified amount of Rs 1.75 trillion.In the preceding VRR auctions, the central bank received a strong demand, with banks submitting bids ranging between 2.5 and 3.2 times of the bidding amounts. This is due to tight liquidity conditions in the system. Liquidity remained largely in deficit mode in the third quarter. The central bank had conducted a VRR auction after six months on December 15.Market participants observed that despite the higher-than-expected US consumer price index (CPI), the US Treasury yield softened. This reinforced the anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March.    

MC Exclusive | Capacity addition, lower AT&C losses top RK Singhs wishlist for Modi 3.0

With the general elections scheduled in April-May, Union Minister for Power and New and Renewable Energy RK Singh listed out his top priorities with the hope that the Narendra Modi government will return for the third consecutive term. "The top priority once the government led by Modi is back in power will be increasing our electricity generation capacity. The other priority will be to reduce the aggregate technical and commercial (AT&C) losses of distribution companies (discoms) to about 10 percent," Singh said during a fireside chat at Moneycontrol's Policy Next Summit in Delhi on January 18. "Rest, India is already a leader in energy transition, so I am not worried about the country's renewable energy targets. We will overachieve it anyway," he said. He said capacity addition is important to keep up with India's growing energy demand. “Since our country is going to continue growing at 7.5 percent or more for the next three decades, we will have to ensure enough electricity. In 2030, our peak demand is going to go up from 241 GW today to 366 GW. Our established capacity has to go up to 900 GW, from about 427 GW today," the power minister said. Giving an overview of the ongoing capacity additions in the power sector, the Union minister said the government is adding around 99,000 megawatt (MW) of renewable energy capacity, which is under construction. Another about 32,000 MW is under various bidding processes. Besides, the government has decided to bid 50,000 MW of renewable energy projects every year.On thermal capacity addition plan, Singh said the government will add 87,000 MW (87 GW) by 2030. "About 27,000 MW is under construction. In addition, we have bid out about 12,000 MW of thermal capacity. Another, 21,000 MW coal-fired capacity is under survey and investigation. Further, about 22,000 MW are under initial stages, where we have identified the land," he said. Singh said the government intends to increase India's hydropower capacity from the current 47,000 MW to about 90,000-100,000 MW. Talking about reduction of AT&C losses of discoms, the Union minister said he has set a fresh target of reducing it to 10-11 percent.AT&C losses are a combination of energy loss and commercial loss. While energy loss may comprise technical loss, theft, and inefficiency in billing, commercial loss constitutes default in payment and inefficiency in the collection. In 2021, the government had set the target to bring down AT&C losses to 12-15 percent by the financial year 2025. However, going by the latest provisional data, the government is likely to have achieved this target two years in advance.According to data from the power ministry, AT&C losses were as high as 25.5 percent in FY13. Till FY21, the AT&C losses stood at 22.3 percent. However, in FY22 it drastically declined to 16.4 percent. As per provisional data, in FY23, India's average AT&C losses have further come down to 13.5 percent.  

HNIs chase mid, small caps, IEX under bear attack, I-Pru Life tumbles, NHPC in focus

“Current earnings, future prospects, management, marketability are all factors more or less independent of assets which contribute their share to the intrinsic value.” - Benjamin Graham. Sentiment has turned cautious after three successive sessions of fall, but two days of gains could change that. In the past, mid and small caps would take a battering during market corrections and investors would flee to the safety of large caps. But now exactly the opposite is taking place — large caps are sliding harder than second-line stocks when the market falls.Whispers in market is that many of the mid and small cap companies say they have good earnings visibility for the next few quarters. And that is giving HNIs the comfort to hold on their positions in the stocks. The stock prices so far indicate that the market is willing to believe the earnings story. They would flag when there's still a couple of quarters of earnings growth left. Bull argument: Spot LNG prices have softened. Strong demand for LNG across sectors of late, and this trend is likely to strengthen going forward.Bear argument:  Competition is rising, also domestic gas production is increasing. The capex on its proposed petrochemicals foray could weigh on margins. Stock has fallen 16 percent in last couple of trading sessionsBear argument: Huge build up of speculative positions in F&O segment. Uncertainty over the market coupling policy for power exchanges an overhang on the stock.Bull argument: Stock has good support in the Rs 120-125 band. Also, concerns about the market coupling have already been priced in. Stock under pressure as government to sell 2.5 percent stakeBull argument: Seen benefitting from India’s commitment to net-zero as hydro power not polluting like thermal power.  Capacity expected to go up sharply in the coming years.Bear argument: Increase in floating stock could be an overhang in the short term. Right now, power is a fancied sector and there is unusually high demand for PSU stocks. This could change. Earnings could be volatile because of dependency on monsoon. GQG Partners upped its stake in ITC to 2.79 percent from 1.58 percent.Bull argument: A good defensive bet if the market continues to correct further. Cigarette volumes increased in Q2 and the trend is likely to sustain.Bear argument: Revenues from agri-business is under stress in FY24 due to a ban on the exports of wheat and rice. Re-rating story is largely over. Further gains will depend on ability to grow earnings.  

IndusInd Bank Q3 results impress analysts. Should you buy or sell?

IndusInd Bank impressed the street with a healthy set of number for the December quarter and analysts remain bullish on the counter, counting steady margins, improving retail deposit mix and strong loan growth as some of the key positives. In the past year, the stock has jumped more than 31 percent, outperforming Bank Nifty index which is up 8 percent. The stock hit a 52-week high of Rs 1,694 on January 15.The bank's net profit grew 17 percent on-year to Rs 2,301 crore, aided by healthy net interest income (NII) growth of 18 percent and lower provisions, the private lender said on January 18. At a time when banking sector is grappling with higher cost of funds, its net interest margin (NIM) saw a modest expansion of two basis points (bps) YoY to 4.29 percent in the December quarter.  Analysts at Jefferies shared a "buy" call for IndusInd, with a target price of Rs 2,070, saying the lender's NII growth was among the best across coverage.  "IndusInd's profit met estimates but they used Rs 200 crore of contingent buffers. We see 20 percent profit compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in FY24-26, with return of equity (RoE) of 16 percent in FY25," they wrote in their result review.  HSBC, too, shared a "buy" call, with a target price of Rs 2,040 apiece on the back of in-line Q3 operating performance, but remain wary of higher slippages. "We forecast CAGR of 23 percent for operating profit and 21 percent earnings per share (EPS) over FY24-26," they said. The rise in fresh slippages, or bad loans, however, remained a key concern during the quarter, analysts at Morgan Stanley said, trimming EPS by 0.5 percent for FY24 and a percent for FY25.  The brokerage firm, however, shared an "overweight" call with a target price of Rs 1,850 per share.  IndusInd Bank's fresh slippages rose 20.5 percent on a sequential basis to Rs 1,700 crore in the December quarter due to a elevated slippages in corporate and vehicle finance books. However, the management guided that they will normalise to Rs 1,200 crore going ahead.  Gross non-performing asset (GNPA) and net NPA ratios were stable at 1.9 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, due to asset reconstruction company (ARC) sale of Rs 3,100 crore. On the business front, analysts at Macquarie said 24 percent on-year growth in retail book was encouraging during the quarter.  "The retail book growth was driven by vehicle book growth. As per liquidity coverage ratio classification mix, retail deposit improved to 45 percent YoY," the brokerage firm said, sharing an "outperform call" with a target price of Rs 1,900 a share.  The lender's loan growth was up by 20 percent YoY, while deposits grew by 13 percent YoY. The management expects loan growth to be in the range of 18-23 percent, with the retail loan mix at 55-60 percent.  "We estimate 21 percent earnings CAGR over FY24-26, leading to RoE of 16.2 percent in FY25," analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said, reiterating a "buy" rating for IndusInd Bank with a target price of Rs 1,900.  Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.  

Interim Budget 2024 Expectations: Govt to target fiscal deficit at 5.3% of GDP for FY2025, says ICRA

ICRA expects the fiscal deficit target for FY2025 to be set at 5.3 per cent of GDP, midway through the expected print of 6.0 per cent for FY2024 and the medium-term target of sub-4.5 per cent by FY2026.With the the Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman all set to present the interim Budget for the fiscal year 2024-25 on February 1, 2024, an analysis by ICRA suggested that the government is likely to target fiscal deficit at 5.3 per cent of GDP for FY2025, entailing a reasonable degree of fiscal consolidation amid slower capex growth. The upcoming Budget will be an interim one and is said to have no major announcements as it is coinciding with the general elections year which is scheduled for this year. The full budget for the fiscal year 2024-25 will be presented after the formation of the new government following the general elections. The Budget is allotted for the upcoming fiscal year, which runs from 1st April to 31st March of the next year.However, the expansion in the Government of India’s (GoI’s) capex and the extent of fiscal consolidation would be scrutinised closely, given the implications for growth and G-sec yields, respectively. ICRA expects the fiscal deficit target for FY2025 to be set at 5.3 per cent of GDP, midway through the expected print of 6.0 per cent for FY2024 and the medium-term target of sub-4.5 per cent by FY2026. “This, along with our projection of an appreciable dip in the revenue deficit, would allow for a capex target of Rs 10.2 trillion for FY2025, 10 per cent higher than the expected level for FY2024 vis-à-vis the 20 per cent-plus YoY expansion seen during FY2021-FY2024. A higher capex target would impinge on the GoI’s ability to bridge half the required fiscal consolidation in FY2025, thereby making the task of reaching medium-term fiscal deficit target by FY2026 even more challenging,” ICRA said in a report. Given the favourable macroeconomic backdrop and expectations of the benign domestic environment sustaining in the next fiscal, per the analysis by ICRA, the GoI is expected to continue on the fiscal consolidation path in the Union Budget for FY2025. However, it added that this is likely to entail a slower expansion in capex vis-à-vis that seen in the post-Covid years, which could weigh on the growth in economic activity. Additionally, with the upcoming Budget set to be an interim one for the purpose of a vote-on-account, major policy changes and announcements are unlikely at this juncture, it said.“We expect the GoI’s gross tax revenues (GTR) to grow by a healthy 11 per cent in FY2025, led by direct taxes and GST collections, even as the growth in excise and customs duty collections is likely to be subdued,” it said. The disinvestment target is likely to be pegged at sub-Rs 500 billion for FY2025. Given the uncertainties involved in market transactions, it would be prudent to set a moderate target of sub-Rs 500 billion for FY2025, instead of a higher aim that may disrupt the budget math if there is a large shortfall in such receipts by the end of the fiscal, based on the past year trends. Furthermore, ICRA expects the revenue expenditure to increase by a modest ~4 per cent in FY2025, led by a moderate growth in interest payments amid a slight moderation in allocation for subsidies and a continued focus on curtailment of other expenses. It added, “We estimate the GoI to budget for a capex of Rs 10.2 trillion in FY2025, implying a relatively sedate YoY expansion of ~10 per cent, compared to over 20 per cent expansion seen in each of post-Covid years. The slowdown in capex growth is likely to have some bearing on economic activity and GDP growth.” As already mentioned above, ICRA expects the GoI to target a fiscal deficit of 5.3 per cent of GDP in FY2025, midway through the expected print of 6.0 per cent in FY2024 and the medium-term target of 4.5 per cent for FY2026.  

Dense fog impacts flight operations at Delhi airport

The IGI airport experienced dense fog with visibility ranging between 50 and 100 metres from 12.30 am to 6.30 am, which improved and currently the visibility is 300 metres at 8 am today. Several flights were delayed at Delhi International Airport due to dense fog and low visibility. A few flights were also cancelled due to severe fog conditions in several parts of the country, Flight Information Display Board (FIDB) at Indira Gandhi International (IGI) Airport showed.  The IGI airport experienced dense fog with visibility ranging between 50 and 100 metres from 12.30 am to 6.30 am, which improved and currently the visibility is 300 metres at 8 am today, India Meteorological Department (IMD) mentioned in a tweet while adding that Runway Visual Range (RVR) is between 600-1200 metres. According to the weather forecast agency, very dense fog is when visibility is between 0 and 50 metres, between 51 and 200 metres is dense, between 201 and 500 metres moderate, and between 501 and 1,000 metres shallow. Several flights were also delayed and a few were cancelled due to the prevailing fog. Arrived from Bahrain and my (connecting) flight is delayed by one hour,” a passenger at Delhi’s IGI airport said. People in Delhi woke up to a foggy Thursday morning with the minimum temperature settling at 6.6 degrees Celsius, one notch below the season’s average, the weather department said. The Financial Express logoThe Financial ExpressSign inInterim Budget 2024 Expectations: Govt to target fiscal deficit at 5.3% of GDP for FY2025, says ICRARam Mandir inauguration date draws closer: Find out the top stocks with Ayodhya connection to bet onThe regional Lala Land! From cinemas to TV, OTT, regional content catches the imagination of viewersWhere to invest for your child’s higher educationBusiness NewsBusinessAirlines AviationFlight Operations Hit! Dense Fog Delays Several Flights At Delhi Airport – Details InsideFlight operations hit! Dense fog delays several flights at Delhi Airport – Details insideThe IGI airport experienced dense fog with visibility ranging between 50 and 100 metres from 12.30 am to 6.30 am, which improved and currently the visibility is 300 metres at 8 am today. The IGI airport experienced dense fog with visibility ranging between 50 and 100 metres from 12.30 am to 6.30 am, which improved and currently the visibility is 300 metres at 8 am today, India Meteorological Department (IMD) mentioned in a tweet while adding that Runway Visual Range (RVR) is between 600-1200 metres.Planned model of Rajmata Vijayaraje Scindia Airport in Gwalior (Image/@MoCA_GoI)Gwalior soars higher! Jyotiraditya Scindia boosts regional connectivity with new flights to 3 cities including Ayodhyapenalties for IndiGo and MIAL; Air India, SpiceJet finedMumbai Airport tarmac incident leads to rare high penalties for IndiGo and MIAL; Air India, SpiceJet fined Rs 30 lakh each – Here’s what happenedHindustan 228 aircraft HALHAL to unveil Hindustan-228 aircraft, upgraded Dhruv helicopter at Wings India 2024Air India Express Gwalior to Bengaluru direct flightAir India Express expands footprint: Daily direct flight from Gwalior to Bengaluru takes offAccording to the weather forecast agency, very dense fog is when visibility is between 0 and 50 metres, between 51 and 200 metres is dense, between 201 and 500 metres moderate, and between 501 and 1,000 metres shallow. Several flights were also delayed and a few were cancelled due to the prevailing fog.“I arrived from Bahrain and my (connecting) flight is delayed by one hour,” a passenger at Delhi’s IGI airport said.Dense fog prevails in parts of the country People in Delhi woke up to a foggy Thursday morning with the minimum temperature settling at 6.6 degrees Celsius, one notch below the season’s average, the weather department said.The Indian Meteorological Department has issued a yellow alert for moderate to dense fog at isolated places in the city for the next two days.According to an official release by the IMD, ‘very dense fog’ was observed in isolated parts of Punjab, Haryana, West Rajasthan and Bihar at 5.30 am on Thursday.Similar heavy fog was also reported in isolated parts of Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha and Assam while moderate fog was observed in isolated parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, as per IMD.  

HUL Q3 preview: Price cuts may hit topline, weak festive demand to limit volumes

FMCG leader Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) is expected to report flat sales and volume growth in the December quarter of the current financial year with price cuts hitting the topline and a weak pick-up in festival demand impacting volumes. HUL’s EBITDA margin is expected to increase 77 basis points to 24.1 percent. Brokerages expect a 470 basis points YoY increase in gross margins as input costs like palm oil, tea, and coffee declined.EBITDA is short for earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation. One basis points is one-hundredth of a percentage point.Volumes have remained weak for the lifebuoy and Dove manufacturer since the September quarter of the previous financial year, ranging from 2-5 percent. Volume growth has been slow due to a weak pick-up in rural demand even as small and regional players eat into its market share.The company's home-care category is expected to report a modest 0.5 percent growth in sales YoY due to price cuts in the laundry portfolio, Kotak Institutional Equities said in its Q3FY24 results update.The personal care and food and refreshments category is estimated to grow 3.5 percent and 3 percent YoY, respectively, BNP Paribas said. FMCG leader Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) is expected to report flat sales and volume growth in the December quarter of the current financial year with price cuts hitting the topline and a weak pick-up in festival demand impacting volumes.HUL’s EBITDA margin is expected to increase 77 basis points to 24.1 percent. Brokerages expect a 470 basis points YoY increase in gross margins as input costs like palm oil, tea, and coffee declined.EBITDA is short for earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation. One basis points is one-hundredth of a percentage point.Volumes have remained weak for the lifebuoy and Dove manufacturer since the September quarter of the previous financial year, ranging from 2-5 percent. Volume growth has been slow due to a weak pick-up in rural demand even as small and regional players eat into its market share.The company's home-care category is expected to report a modest 0.5 percent growth in sales YoY due to price cuts in the laundry portfolio, Kotak Institutional Equities said in its Q3FY24 results update. The price of palm oil, an essential raw material for the FMCG sector, fell fallen 10 percent YoY and 3 percent QoQ in the December quarter, Kotak Institutional Equities said. Palm Oil is used in making soaps, shampoos, biscuits, and other products.In its last earnings call, HUL said it was facing competition from local players in the tea and laundry categories. Tea prices have fallen further, which may lead to increased competition, analysts say. In a situation of easing inflation, small players start entering the market and gain market share from big and listed players.Advertising and promotional spends for the FMCG company is estimated to be around 10 percent of Q3FY24 sales, BNP Paribas said.    

HDFC Bank tremors rock banking stocks, Nifty Bank plunges 4%

Banking stocks saw heavy selling on January 17, as all 12 Nifty Bank index names traded with cuts in the afternoon after negative commentary on heavyweight HDFC Bank's below-par December numbers weighed heavy on sentiment for the sector. HDFC Bank, which takes up over 29 percent of weightage in Nifty Bank, plunged nearly 7 percent, putting pressure on the sectoral index, which was down nearly 4 percent. The weakness also rubbed off on other lenders, pulling them down by up to 4 percent. Other index heavyweights, IndusInd Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, SBI and Axis Bank, which have a cumulative weightage of nearly 49 percent in Nifty Bank, lost 2-4 percent. HDFC's Q3 net profit came largely in-line with Moneycontrol's estimates but there was a twist. Brokerage firm Jefferies noted that the net profit was lifted with a lower tax expense in the third quarter. Brokerage firm Citi also issued a cautious outlook for private lenders, as it lowered FY25/26 net interest margin estimates for Kotak Mahindra Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Federal Bank and ICICI Bank.The firm said that quarterly business updates reflected further loan-to-deposit expansion and loan-to-credit contraction, which points towards further downside to net interest margin.The brokerage downgraded state-lender SBI to “sell” and lowering its price target for the stock by over 14 percent to Rs 600. Citi also initiated a 90-day negative catalyst on SBI. It also downgraded Federal Bank to “neutral” and reduced the target price by 20.5 percent to Rs 135.Manish Gunwani, fund manager at Bandhan AMC, warned against being overweight on private banks, saying the segment doesn't offer great risk-reward at the current juncture. Banking stocks saw heavy selling on January 17, as all 12 Nifty Bank index names settled with sharp cuts after negative commentary on heavyweight HDFC Bank's below-par December numbers weighed heavy on sentiment for the sector. HDFC Bank, which takes up over 29 percent of weightage in Nifty Bank, dived over 8 percent, putting pressure on the sectoral index, which was down 4.3 percent. The weakness also rubbed off on other lenders, pulling them down by up to 4 percent.HDFC's Q3 net profit came largely in-line with Moneycontrol's estimates but there was a twist. Brokerage firm Jefferies noted that the net profit was lifted with a lower tax expense in the third quarter.Other index heavyweights, IndusInd Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, SBI and Axis Bank, which have a cumulative weightage of nearly 49 percent in Nifty Bank, lost 2-4 percent.  

Ram temple tourism: Hospitality, travel industries create up to 20,000 jobs in Ayodhya

A surge in tourist inflows has already increased demand for accommodation and travel, “leading to a significant upswing in Ayodhya’s hospitality sector, with a particular focus on the establishment of adequate infrastructure to host travellers”, he said. “At least 10,000 jobs and up to about 20,000 positions were created in various roles related to hospitality, travel and tourism – including hotel staff, cooks, servers, drivers, etc. in the last six months,” said Balasubramanian A, vice president and head - consumer & ecommerce at TeamLease. According to several officials in the hospitality sector, thousands of jobs in areas such as hospitality managers, restaurant and hotel staff, logistics managers, drivers, etc are likely to open up towards the end of this year or the first half of 2025 – not just in Ayodhya but in neighbouring cities like Lucknow, Kanpur, Gorakhpur, etc - with hotel companies and restaurant owners keeping a close eye on how the demand-supply situation pans out.“In the next three-four months, we should get a clearer picture of the everyday traffic at the temple and the demand for manpower to cater to the devotees,” an industry executive said on condition of anonymity. According to estimates, Tirupati Balaji Temple, which is among the world’s richest temples and remains crowded all year round, attracts an average 50,000 daily devotees in a steady state and the number goes up to 100,000 on festival days or holidays.According to various estimates, the Ram Temple in Ayodhya is likely to see traffic of between 300,000 to 700,000 people in the first week post inauguration.However, most of these jobs are temporary in nature and the count may go up or down, depending on how the demand pans out and the number of devotees that visit the temple, industry experts said. Typically, a hotel from construction stage to getting operational takes about 3-4 years, said Nandivardhan Jain, chief executive of Noesis Capital Advisors. Typically, a hotel from construction stage to getting operational takes about 3-4 years, said Nandivardhan Jain, chief executive of Noesis Capital Advisors. However, in the case of Ayodhya, various permissions could be fast-tracked and, so, the demand for manpower is expected to pour in within the next 18 to 24 months, he added.Hotel companies are watching how the demand-supply situation pans out. Currently Ayodhya is short in supply with only two big, branded hotels – Park Inn by Radisson and Cygnet.  

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Budget 2024: A pressing issue that may not wait till full budget

The fiscal deficit target of 5.3% will be set by the government in FY25, keeping in view the fiscal consolidation path till FY26, as it normalises capital spending and refrains from any major announcements in the interim budget before the general elections, Icra and Barclays economists have said. ICRA expects the fiscal deficit target for FY25 to be set at 5.3% of GDP, midway through the expected print of 6.0% for FY2024 and the medium-term target of sub-4.5% by FY26. India's Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector, which has 34% of its market in rural areas, is a good indicator of rural economic health. It is facing challenges in rural areas due to sluggish demand. The deficiency in rainfall in key agricultural states has disrupted the revival of rural demand seen in the first two quarters of the financial year. President of All India Consumer Products Distributors Federation, Dhairyashil Patil, has told TOI that FMCG sales in rural areas are 20-30% lower than usual. Demand for daily household products and groceries continued to be challenging in villages during October-December quarter, potentially hurting volume growth of the overall consumer goods sector. Godrej Consumer Products said demand trends in the fast-moving consumer sector during the third quarter were like the earlier quarter, while Marico said urban markets stayed steady but rural markets offered little cheer."High rural unemployment, along with demand for NREGS, reflects rural stress. El Nino derailed the initial green shoots seen at the start of FY24. Increased aggression of smaller players and alternative avenues of spending such as higher spends on education, medical, telecom charges, are leading to softer growth in the FMCG sector," Abneesh Roy, executive director at Nuvama Institutional Equities, has said. Consumer goods companies and analysts say demand for daily groceries and personal and home products in villages continued to trail urban growth in the December quarter but expect a steady recovery across markets on improving macro indicators, positive consumer sentiment and, importantly, increase in government spending in the election year.Another marker of rural distress is stiff demand for work under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. The budgetary outlay of Rs 60,000 crore for the shceme for fiscal 2024 was exhausted by November itself. The government subsequently provided Rs 10,000 crore in urgent assistance to meet demand.The FMCG companies have high hopes from election-year spending that will spur rural consumption. "During an election year, governments often extends benefits which are provided as part of various schemes, offer sops, helping rural households," said Akshay D'souza, chief of growth and insights at retail intelligence platform Bizom.    

Tiger Woods Net Worth and Businesses—PGA, Nike, Gatorade, and a Mini Golf Chain

Golf legend Tiger Woods may have parted ways with Nike after 27 years, but he has made millions from his career as a pro golfer and lucrative endorsement deals with other major brands including Gatorade, Rolex, and Monster Energy. Considered one of the best golfers of all time, Woods is one of the few billionaire athletes in the world—and is only the second active athlete who is a billionaire, behind NBA star LeBron James. Woods has a net worth of $1.1 billion as of January 2024, according to Forbes.1 Here's how Tiger Woods built his fortune. In his 27-year career as a professional golfer, Woods accumulated 106 worldwide wins and 15 majors. He has 82 PGA Tour wins, tied with golfer Sam Snead for the most PGA Tour wins in history.Throughout his career as a pro golfer, Woods has earned about $1.8 billion, according to an estimate by Forbes.1 Woods has also earned a record-setting $121 million in prize money from PGA tours.3 PGA Tour. "Career Earnings."However, Woods' impressive earnings from golf are not the only way he amassed his wealth—in fact, they account for less than 10% of his net worth, according to Forbes. The rest of his fortune comes from major endorsement deals and a series of business ventures.Woods' 27-year partnership with Nike certainly contributed to his massive fortune as the sporting company was his biggest backer. Woods' deal with Nike was said to be worth about $500 million throughout the life of the contract. That's not the only major partnership Woods had, though. The golfer had a lucrative tie-up with sports drink company, Gatorade, which paid him an estimated $100 million over several years. However, the company ended its partnership with Woods in 2010 after news of several extramarital affairs surfaced. AT&T and technology consulting company Accenture were also among the brands that ended their partnerships with Woods at the time. Woods partnered with energy drink company, Monster Energy, in 2016 and has continued his endorsement deal with them. The pro golfer has been seen playing out of a Monster-branded golf bag and has also represented the brand's other drink, Monster Hydro Super Sport since 2022.Several of Woods' businesses have to do with golf—he owns a golf course design firm, TGR Design, golf simulator tool Full Swing, as well as an indoor mini golf chain, Popstroke. Popstroke has nine locations across Florida, Arizona, and Texas and anticipates opening an additional 15 sites in 2024 and 2025.Woods is also a shareholder in global real estate development company Nexus Luxury Collection, along with singer Justin Timberlake. In October 2023, the company announced that Woods and Timberlake will be opening a sports and entertainment gastropub in St. Andrews, Scotland, through Nexus. The premium venue includes dining and lounge areas, and Woods' own Full Swing golf simulators.Woods is no stranger to real estate and has bought and sold multiple million-dollar properties. His home on Jupiter Island costs an estimated $54 million.     

New Worker Classification Rule Could Disrupt the US Gig Economy

Uber drivers and other gig economy workers could be legally classified as employees under a new Department of Labor rule that goes into effect in March. The new rule already faces at least one lawsuit, filed by freelance writers who want to remain "independent contractors" rather than employees. Employees are entitled to overtime pay, minimum wage, and other benefits not available to contractors.While people who work as contractors value the flexibility, employment law experts say there's no reason employers couldn't offer flexible hours alongside employee status and the benefits that go along with it. App-based ride-sharing services such as Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) earned the title of “disruptors” for the way they drove traditional cab companies out of business. Now, they’re trying to fend off the disruption that could be coming for them, in the form of a new federal labor rule. A new regulation on worker classification released this month is already facing at least one legal challenge, and will likely see more pushback from gig economy companies whose business model it threatens. The new law could turn the gig economy upside down, and affect many of the estimated 22.1 million Americans who work as independent contractors, employment experts say. Earlier this month, the Department of Labor released details on a rule setting standards on when a worker counts as an employee as opposed to an independent contractor, entitling them to overtime pay, unemployment insurance, and a slew of other benefits under the law. The new rule, first proposed in 2022, is set to go into effect in March.This week, a group of freelancers, including three New Jersey-based writers, sued the Department of Labor to overturn the new rule. At least one major business lobbying group is also considering legal action. Should the government give “employee” status to workers currently classified as contractors, it would threaten the business models of companies such as Uber, Lyft, and Doordash (DASH), whose contract workers cost their employers much less than traditional employees would.Uber and the Flex Association—a trade group representing gig economy companies—both released statements last week saying that the rule would have no immediate impact on their businesses. “This rule does not materially change the law under which we operate, and will not impact the classification of the over one million Americans who turn to Uber to earn money flexibly,” Uber’s statement reads.  

Price cuts mar HUL’s Q3 show, posts flat revenue and profit growth

Consumer goods major Hindustan Unilever posted a flat 0.5% growth in net profit to ₹2,519 crore in the December quarter from ₹2,505 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. Its volumes grew at 2% year on year in the quarter ending December. Its sales growth was flat, registering a marginal decline of 0.3% to ₹14,928 crore due to price cuts taken by the company. “Looking forward we expect gradual recovery in market demand to continue aided by increased government spending, recovery in winter crop sowing and better crop realization. Rural income growths and winter crop yields are key factors that will determine the pace of recovery,” said Rohit Jawa, CEO and MD of HUL. The company also expects competitive intensity to stay due to benign commodity prices. Going ahead, the company expects price growth to be marginally negative if commodity prices remain where they are.“HUL remains well positioned to unlock this opportunity whilst navigating the short-term challenges,” Jawa added. Its earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization (EBIDTA) expanded by 10 basis points year on year to 23.7% in Q3. The FMCG major gets three-fourths of its business from home care and BPC business. Both these businesses saw mid-single digit growth in volumes. The company’s sales were affected due pricing action. Its home care’s revenues fell by 1%, with the BPC segment posting no change. “Skin cleansing revenue declined due to the impact of price reductions taken to pass on the benefits of lower commodity costs to consumers. Market development actions in body wash continue to yield good results. While delayed winter impacted skin care performance in the quarter, premium non-winter portfolios continued to do well,” said HUL in its press release.Food and refreshment business however saw a low-to single digit fall in volumes, as this segmental revenues went up by 1%. The company said that tea further strengthened value and volume market leadership, with green tea and flavoured tea performing well“Coffee grew in double-digits driven by pricing. Health Food Drinks delivered competitive modest price-led growth driven by Plus range,” HUL said.During the quarter, it launched Knorr Korean K-Pot noodles; and Bru Gold in Vanilla, Caramel and Hazelnut flavours.  

Retail Retail’s net profit jumps 32% to ₹3,165 crore on festive fervour

Reliance Retail’s third quarter net profit grew 31.9% growth to ₹3,165 crore from ₹2,400 crore in the same quarter last year. Its revenue from operations also registered a 23.8% growth to ₹74,373 crore in the festive quarter, aided by aggressive store expansions. The Isha Ambani-led company added 252 stores during the quarter. On a YoY basis, its store count is higher by 1,549 to a total of 18,774 stores as of December 2023 end. “Reliance Retail has delivered strong performance during the festive quarter. Our business success is intricately woven into the larger fabric of India's economic growth, and together, we are shaping a compelling story of innovation and world class possibilities for the future,” said Isha M Ambani, executive director of Reliance Retail Ventures.Its footfalls grew by a robust 40.3%. Its digital and new commerce businesses now contribute to 19% of its revenue. “The retail segment has delivered an impressive financial performance with its rapidly expanding physical as well as digital footprint,” said Mukesh D Ambani, chairman and managing director, Reliance Industries.All its business segments exhibited double digit growth in the December quarter. Its mainstay grocery business grew by 41%. “Stores witnessed strong growth in non-food categories led by general merchandise & home and personal care. Catalogue expansion across home, cookware, furnishings and travel needs have enabled consumers in extending their shopping mission at Smart Bazaar as a one stop destination,” the company said.Its nascent consumer brands business also grew 3x aided by distribution reach. The company which re-launched Campa line of soft drinks said that its beverage, general merchandise and stapes are driving growth momentum of its own brands. It had also launched its staples business under the brand name Independence.It also launched new namkeens and sweets under Masti Oye! Brand, along with Deluxe assorted toffees under Toffeeman. The festival and wedding season also drove business in its fashion and lifestyle segments with good performance from its jewels business. “Tira is expanding its store network across top tier cities and has received strong customer traction. The business has delivered strong performance across various operating metrics including sales productivity, average bill value, repeats,” the company said.  

2024 will be a perilous year for the world economy as geopolitical tensions ramp up, top economists warn

The year 2024 will likely be a stormy one for the global economy as growth slows and geopolitical tensions ramp up around the world, according to a World Economic Forum survey. The foundation polled over 60 chief economists ahead of its annual meeting, which is taking place in the Swiss ski resort town of Davos this week. More than half the respondents said the world economy will get weaker this year, and 70% predicted looser financial conditions – implying that they believe central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, will start lowering interest rates at some point in 2024.  Over 80% of the economists surveyed by the WEF expect geopolitical tensions to drive up stock-market volatility and economic uncertainty, while around three-quarters of those polled said they're expecting artificial intelligence to boost innovation in advanced economies this year. "Amid accelerating divergence, the resilience of the global economy will continue to be tested in the year ahead," WEF managing director Saadia Zahidi said. "Though global inflation is easing, growth is stalling, financial conditions remain tight, global tensions are deepening and inequalities are rising." Wall Street executives have been fretting about heightened geopolitical volatility since war broke out in the Middle East in October, although those worries didn't stop stocks from charging higher over the final two months of 2023. Despite their gloomy outlooks, the Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX index – a widely-followed Wall Street "fear gauge" – is trading close to its lowest level since before the pandemic, suggesting that traders aren't so worried.  

India emerges strong amid global economic challenges, feels Citis Tyler Dickson

Tyler Dickson, head of investment banking at Citi feels that India stands out as a shining star in Asia in the midst of global macroeconomic challenges, The Economic Times reported. Dickson expressed bullish sentiments about India's mergers and acquisition (M&A) segment and equity market activities, during an interview with the paper.Questioned about his thoughts on how well India has fared amid the global macroeconomic challenges compared to other emerging markets in Asia, Dickson noted that the country is currently the fifth-largest economy globally and is poised to climb to the third position. The enthusiasm of Indian business leaders, coupled with the 'China plus one' strategy, makes India an attractive market for global investors, he said. Citi sees it as one of the best opportunities for both Indian and international clients, it reported. On the environment regarding M&As and tighter global liquidity conditions, Dickson felt that India's M&A market remains robust at around $85 billion despite global challenges. While the debt capital markets (DCM) face challenges due to fluctuating rates, Citi maintains a positive long-term perspective on the M&A landscape in India, he added. In terms of deal activity he feels that higher interest rates globally indicate slower economic growth and necessitate adjustments in deal activity. He however noted that stability in the cost of capital is crucial, and that as the market recalibrates, confidence will increase. The focus on quality in earnings, cash flow, and growth becomes more significant in a higher interest rate environment, he added. Further, Dickson also expressed a long-term bullish outlook on technology, considering it a fundamental driver of growth, the report said. While acknowledging the challenges faced during the "technology winter," Citi is cautiously optimistic about increased activity levels for technology companies in M&A, ECM, and DCM in 2024, he added. Acknowledging that there is a "financing wall in the 2025-2026 era", characterized by the need to refinance debt at higher costs, Dickson said Citi emphasises that this debt is not super expensive. The bank sees an opportunity for the global market to adjust to this reality, considering historical periods with more expensive debt, it said.  

Fitch expects RBI to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in FY25

Mumbai, Federal Bank on Tuesday reported 23 per cent increase in consolidated net profit at Rs 1,035.42 crore for December quarter 2023-24, helped by a sharp decline in provisions and also surge in non-interest income. On a standalone basis, the private sector lender's net profit in the quarter increased 25 per cent to Rs 1,007 crore, its highest ever. The growth in the core NII was constrained because of narrowing of net interest margin at 3.19 per cent from the 3.55 per cent in the year-ago period, and the 18 per cent asset growth provided a limited succour. Chief executive and managing director Shyam Srinivasan said the bank has posted 19 per cent growth in deposits by giving higher rates, but was quick to add that the deposit growth is from individual clients which will yield dividends over a period of time. He admitted that the bank has not been able to deliver on its guidance of expanding NIMs in the second half of FY24 due to the challenging external environment where funds are coming at a higher cost, and added that it will look at maintaining NIM at the 3.20 per cent level in the near term. The net advances at the end of the December quarter stood at Rs 199,185 crore, 18% year-on-year (YoY) growth over Rs 168,173 crore in Q3FY23. In the previous quarter, the bank had reported net advances at Rs 192,817 crore.The retail book was up by 24% YoY in Q3Y24, while the business banking book registered an 18% YoY growth. The bank also reported a 23% YoY growth in gold loans.The deposits in the said quarter stood at Rs 239,591 crore and were up 19% versus Rs 201,408 crore in Q3FY23. On a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis, the uptick was 3% against Rs 232,868 crore in Q2FY24.The bank reported a slight uptick in its gross non-performing assets (NPAs) in Q3FY24 at Rs 2.29% on a sequential basis against 2.26% in Q2FY24. However, GNPA was down YoY from 2.43% in Q3FY23. The net NPA was flat on a QoQ basis at 0.64% in Q3FY23. In the year-ago period, the lender had reported NNPA at 0.73%.The PCR improved by 189 bps YoY and 5 bps QoQ, while the collection efficiency ensured recoveries upgradations of Rs 290 crore, the company filing said. The PCR remains elevated at 11-quarter high.The returns on assets for Q3FY24 stood at 1.39% versus 1.36% in Q2FY24 and 1.33% in Q3FY23. The net interest margins (NIMs) were reported at 3.19%, down from 3.22% in Q2FY24 and 3.55% in Q3FY23.The bank reported its October-December quarter earnings during market hours and the share fell 0.55% to the day's low of Rs 152.10.Federal Bank posted strong growth in the branch network, adding 65 new branches in FY24.    

Federal Bank Q3 consolidated profit jumps 23% to Rs 1,035 cr

Mumbai, Federal Bank on Tuesday reported 23 per cent increase in consolidated net profit at Rs 1,035.42 crore for December quarter 2023-24, helped by a sharp decline in provisions and also surge in non-interest income. On a standalone basis, the private sector lender's net profit in the quarter increased 25 per cent to Rs 1,007 crore, its highest ever. The growth in the core NII was constrained because of narrowing of net interest margin at 3.19 per cent from the 3.55 per cent in the year-ago period, and the 18 per cent asset growth provided a limited succour. Chief executive and managing director Shyam Srinivasan said the bank has posted 19 per cent growth in deposits by giving higher rates, but was quick to add that the deposit growth is from individual clients which will yield dividends over a period of time. He admitted that the bank has not been able to deliver on its guidance of expanding NIMs in the second half of FY24 due to the challenging external environment where funds are coming at a higher cost, and added that it will look at maintaining NIM at the 3.20 per cent level in the near term.The net advances at the end of the December quarter stood at Rs 199,185 crore, 18% year-on-year (YoY) growth over Rs 168,173 crore in Q3FY23. In the previous quarter, the bank had reported net advances at Rs 192,817 crore. The retail book was up by 24% YoY in Q3Y24, while the business banking book registered an 18% YoY growth. The bank also reported a 23% YoY growth in gold loans.The deposits in the said quarter stood at Rs 239,591 crore and were up 19% versus Rs 201,408 crore in Q3FY23. On a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis, the uptick was 3% against Rs 232,868 crore in Q2FY24.The bank reported a slight uptick in its gross non-performing assets (NPAs) in Q3FY24 at Rs 2.29% on a sequential basis against 2.26% in Q2FY24. However, GNPA was down YoY from 2.43% in Q3FY23. The net NPA was flat on a QoQ basis at 0.64% in Q3FY23. In the year-ago period, the lender had reported NNPA at 0.73%.The PCR improved by 189 bps YoY and 5 bps QoQ, while the collection efficiency ensured recoveries upgradations of Rs 290 crore, the company filing said. The PCR remains elevated at 11-quarter high.The returns on assets for Q3FY24 stood at 1.39% versus 1.36% in Q2FY24 and 1.33% in Q3FY23. The net interest margins (NIMs) were reported at 3.19%, down from 3.22% in Q2FY24 and 3.55% in Q3FY23.The bank reported its October-December quarter earnings during market hours and the share fell 0.55% to the day's low of Rs 152.10.Federal Bank posted strong growth in the branch network, adding 65 new branches in FY24.